Olive Oil: Global market updates

The report of the campaign 2016/17

According to IOC estimates the world production of olive oil in the countryside 2016/17 would be down by 20% compared to the previous season with a to 2.539 million tons 1 where the part of the IOC member countries expect 93% (2350500 tons). In the EU production fell by 25%, nevertheless, the first four producers were Spain (1,286,000 tonnes), Greece (195,000 tonnes), Italy (182,300 tonnes) and Portugal (69 400 tonnes). Outside the EU, production fell in the Maghreb countries (- 15%) in Morocco, (-29%) in Tunisia, (-23%) in Algeria and (-11%) in Libya. In contrast, East production levels recorded increases of (+ 18%) in Turkey, (+ 21%) in Egypt and (+ 9%) in Lebanon. World consumption of 2,803,000 tons during the season decreased by 6% compared to the 2015/16 result of a reduction of (-12%) in the EU countries including Greece (-25%), France (-17%), Italy (-14%) and Spain (-7%) and multiples recorded elsewhere including Turkey (+ 34%), Brazil (+ 19%), China (+ 13%), Australia (+ 7%).

The 2017/18 campaign forecast

The latest forecast 2 of the 2017/18 campaign is based on global production in the growth of 14% compared to 2016/17, or 2,894,000 tonnes, where almost 94% would return to IOC member countries. Production in the eurozone is up 3% with 1,805,000 tons with successively from first to fourth place Spain (1 090 500 tonnes and -15%), Italy (320 000 tonnes and + 76%), Greece (300 000 tonnes and + 54%) and Portugal (78 800 tonnes and + 14%). Outside the EU, production would also be in Turkey (287 000 tonnes and + 62%), and in the Maghreb countries is Tunisia (220 000 tonnes and + 120%), Morocco (140 000 tonnes and + 27%), Algeria (80 000 tonnes and + 27%) and Libya (18,000 tonnes and + 12%). As for world consumption, she would believe 5% is estimated at 2 954 000 tonnes.

The producer prices of the 2017/18 campaign

Average prices for the production of extra virgin olive oil from the first three of the campaign2017 / 2018 have thus varied in the first four world exporters to know :
– In Spain: After starting at € 3.71 / kg in October 2017, prices fell in € 3.59 / kg in November to reach € 3.57 / kg in December 2017. Compared to the same period of the previous year the prices of December 2017 however increased by 4%.
– In Italy, prices fell to € 3.99 / kg at the end of December 2017 after having successively reached € 5.3 / kg and € 4.8 / kg in October and November, showing a decline of 29% in December 2017 compared to the same period last year.
– In Greece of € 3.88 / kg in October, prices stabilized at € 3.33 / kg in November and December 2017 is a -4% slide from the same period of 2016.
– In Tunisia, as in previous countries, producer prices have fallen steadily from € 3.68 / kg to € 3.53 / kg and to € 3.48 / kg from October to December 2017 thus regressing by 5% report to December 2016.

Tunisia and its potential competitors

Although threatened with being caught up by some competitors (Morocco, Syria, Turkey) level of production, Tunisia’s exports still remain above placing among the leading pack on a global scale. Its national consumption with an average of 33 thousand tons over the last decade gives it an exportable volume significantly higher than that of its competitors in view of its large population much smaller and the quality of its product (conf fig 2-3-4-5 2016/17 data provisional 2017/18 estimates are estimated)

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